Will **at most** 100 traders bet in this market in a week? [SUBSIDIZED]
111
313Ṁ22k
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
NO

Resolves according to the trader count (next to market close date), which means limit orders and bots also count.

Inspired by @AnT, changed the criteria a bit to "accelerate".

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predictedNO

Oops I think I misread the title of this market as at least but hey that mean I accidentally got it right

predictedYES

NOOOOOOOOO

predictedNO

Thank you for playing 🎉

predictedNO

@Thunderstorm Why were you buying YES 😳

@MrLuke255 ooh good question

why not?

predictedNO

@Thunderstorm I don’t know 😅 you do you

predictedNO

Letssss goooooo

100

99 must go

I must say I am confused.

@SarkanyVar I think it means subsidized by author (or someone), but not subsidized per-trader by Manifold.

@Irigi Oh, thanks! The subsidization changes in the recent days have been quite confusing for me, so the clarification is appreciated.

predictedNO

@SarkanyVar Manifold doesn’t like fun markets anymore 😐

I subsidised it myself and they stole 25% as a fee

predictedNO

@MrLuke255 I feel your pain. I wish fun markets weren't so dramatically punished

@MrLuke255 The fee for creating the market goes into the liquidity pool as well, no?

predictedNO

@Irigi yes, that fee is the whole starting pool.

94 in 179 hours roughly 1 per 2 hours and 3+bit hours left. It isn't up with the rate but more people notice it as close time gets closer. (13 markets close before this one) Also when there is 99 someone will bet no so when there is 98 someone will feel safe to bet no which means when there is 97 it is probably safe to bet no, which means ....

predictedNO

It's getting close!

predictedYES

Let me clarify this, does this market mean:

"If the amount listed in the positions tab is under 100 at close, this resolves yes"?

predictedYES

@CardgameGuy Yes, or 100 [EDIT: I was wrong! See below]

@oh ok, thank you

predictedNO

@CardgameGuy This number

predictedYES

@MrLuke255 if that number is under 100?

predictedNO

@CardgameGuy under or equal to 100

predictedYES

@MrLuke255 thank you

@oh Two things seem to be conflated here, the number of traders and the number of positions. The title, description, and screenshot ask about traders, but when a user above asked about positions, OP said yes it’s about positions. This is actually about traders, yes?

predictedNO

@JimHays I don't understand, when have I said it's about positions? If someone exits their position, they still count as traders. And this question is about the number next to the market close date, which is the number of traders

predictedYES

@MrLuke255 I had not realized that when someone exits, the positions number changed. I figured that they were the same. Sorry about that

Above CardGameGuy asks “does this market mean:

"If the amount listed in the positions tab is under 100 at close, this resolves yes"?”

You respond “Yes, or 100”

predictedNO

@JimHays Look closely, this wasn't my answer, but @oh's

predictedYES

@MrLuke255 Sorry for creating confusion, everyone!

@MrLuke255 Ah, thanks!

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