Will **at most** 100 traders bet in this market in a week? [SUBSIDIZED]
111
1.1K
313
resolved Oct 16
Resolved
NO

Resolves according to the trader count (next to market close date), which means limit orders and bots also count.

Inspired by @AnT, changed the criteria a bit to "accelerate".

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ396
2Ṁ271
3Ṁ210
4Ṁ186
5Ṁ178
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predicted NO

Oops I think I misread the title of this market as at least but hey that mean I accidentally got it right

predicted YES

NOOOOOOOOO

predicted NO

Thank you for playing 🎉

predicted NO

@Thunderstorm Why were you buying YES 😳

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@MrLuke255 ooh good question

why not?

predicted NO

@Thunderstorm I don’t know 😅 you do you

predicted NO

Letssss goooooo

bought Ṁ100 of NO

100

bought Ṁ100 of NO

99 must go

bought Ṁ18 of NO

I must say I am confused.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@SarkanyVar I think it means subsidized by author (or someone), but not subsidized per-trader by Manifold.

bought Ṁ600 of NO

@Irigi Oh, thanks! The subsidization changes in the recent days have been quite confusing for me, so the clarification is appreciated.

predicted NO

@SarkanyVar Manifold doesn’t like fun markets anymore 😐

I subsidised it myself and they stole 25% as a fee

predicted NO

@MrLuke255 I feel your pain. I wish fun markets weren't so dramatically punished

bought Ṁ600 of NO

@MrLuke255 The fee for creating the market goes into the liquidity pool as well, no?

predicted NO

@Irigi yes, that fee is the whole starting pool.

94 in 179 hours roughly 1 per 2 hours and 3+bit hours left. It isn't up with the rate but more people notice it as close time gets closer. (13 markets close before this one) Also when there is 99 someone will bet no so when there is 98 someone will feel safe to bet no which means when there is 97 it is probably safe to bet no, which means ....

predicted NO

It's getting close!

predicted YES

Let me clarify this, does this market mean:

"If the amount listed in the positions tab is under 100 at close, this resolves yes"?

predicted YES

@CardgameGuy Yes, or 100 [EDIT: I was wrong! See below]

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@oh ok, thank you

predicted NO

@CardgameGuy This number

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 if that number is under 100?

predicted NO

@CardgameGuy under or equal to 100

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 thank you

@oh Two things seem to be conflated here, the number of traders and the number of positions. The title, description, and screenshot ask about traders, but when a user above asked about positions, OP said yes it’s about positions. This is actually about traders, yes?

predicted NO

@JimHays I don't understand, when have I said it's about positions? If someone exits their position, they still count as traders. And this question is about the number next to the market close date, which is the number of traders

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 I had not realized that when someone exits, the positions number changed. I figured that they were the same. Sorry about that

Above CardGameGuy asks “does this market mean:

"If the amount listed in the positions tab is under 100 at close, this resolves yes"?”

You respond “Yes, or 100”

predicted NO

@JimHays Look closely, this wasn't my answer, but @oh's

predicted YES

@MrLuke255 Sorry for creating confusion, everyone!

bought Ṁ40 of NO

@MrLuke255 Ah, thanks!