I'm thinking of a thing. You have a week and at most 25 Yes-or-No questions to figure out exactly what thing it is.
Here's a hash of a phrase containing the answer: 9a44247296effd745a6af7e0eb3dbc7cc8bb23fe2111f384f2f83ddf46fa58414453a92666ff8b96517b37694e9cebf6e718e5bf58aee593057557515229ed9c
If you get it right, you win!
I've put in a few questions, but you'll have to add your own from here on out.
I was inspired heavily by this market by @Stralor: /Stralor/manifold-plays-twenty-questions
The Rules
A couple of times per day at my discretion, I'll answer ̶a̶n̶y̶ ̶n̶u̶m̶b̶e̶r̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶q̶u̶e̶s̶t̶i̶o̶n̶s two questions (with highest and lowest probability) about the thing which will get at least 3 likes/hearts ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶i̶l̶l̶ ̶t̶r̶a̶d̶e̶ ̶a̶t̶ ̶l̶e̶s̶s̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶2̶6̶%̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶h̶i̶g̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶7̶4̶%̶ (starting with those with more likes). In order for that to work you should write a comment in context of your newly added answer (see the button on the right side of the bet button). That comment can be anything in order to count (for example: a dot), but it's a good place to write some thoughts. If you'd like to require more likes before the question is resolved, then write this explicitly in that comment (max. requirement is 10). Comment threads can be used for discussion.
Valid questions are those that can be resolved YES or NO and are new info. They don't need to be properly written, but it must be clear to me what's going on. Examples:
"Is it round?"
"ball"
"uhh i think maybe its the eiffel tower"
"is it a DOG or a CAT?!?" ⚠️ but careful, this one would be answered YES or NO without further explanation
If there's tricky compound logic, multiple questions in one, it's a troll answer, or I just can't understand the intent of it clearly, it isn't a valid question and will either be ignored or resolved N/A with prejudice.
However, if it's valid but I feel neither YES or NO is wholly correct, I will resolve PROB and not count it as one of your 25.
Resolution
🎉 If one of the questions I answer is the thing: 🎉
WILL YOU WIN? resolves YES
Bonus: M$1000 prize to the person whose question got it right
😭 If you don't guess the exact thing within 25 answers: 😭
WILL YOU WIN? resolves NO
All remaining questions will resolve N/A.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ400 | |
| 2 | Ṁ166 | |
| 3 | Ṁ79 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ39 |
@MrLuke255 will"you"win? The you is like"you guys" rather than you as in "you personally" who votes on the comment. I voted no, I won't win, nobody will win
@Shump agreed. but what organic matter is not wood? it would have to be cloth, something pretty obscure, or a stretch like downstream oil products like rubber
You're right. Also paper is already at 3, so let's let that resolve first. I'd stay there's still a decent chance of something made from cloth (fits the 10% plastic because synthetics exist). Oil products wouldn't count as organic matter though, right? Otherwise plastic also counts as organic material, which is really weird since these are molecules that don't exist in nature.
@Shump I would think that oil would count as organic. Oils are lipids, one of the main types of organic molecules.
@JosephNoonan Oil as in cooking oil, yes. Oil as in gasoline, less so. Oil products like plastic and rubber are definitily not composed of organic molecules though
Perhaps you guys should suggest another question instead if this question isn't good enough. Btw, the category of organic matter depends on whether you use a common sense definition of organic or the chemistry definition where basically everything with carbon is organic. I'm not sure which one Luke used.
@Shump I'm refer to things that still contain oil, rather than being processed into different chemicals. So it would also include stuff like gasoline. Plastic could be excluded, depending on the definition of organic matter.
I think rubber definitely counts as organic, though. It can be harvested from trees. Though maybe only certain rubbers should count.