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@MrBonnison resolves YES

@Ziddletwix not necessarily. Biden still has a couple months to die or resign or something

@Robincvgr Yeah but in context, the close date was specifically set to today, which almost certainly implies the creator meant this question to refer to the election

@Ziddletwix The obvious literal meaning of the question would be NO if Biden resigns and Harris is an interim president for long enough to be inaugurated. That's why this market reliably traded about 5% lower than "will Trump win the election" markets.

Just to check, how will you resolve the market if Biden ends his term early and Kamala is inaugurated prior to 1/20/25, even if Trump wins the election and is then inaugurated on 1/20/25? That will be a NO, correct?