There is broad consensus that the Sept 15th "incident" on the West Palm Beach golf course was a second assassination attempt against Trump.
Biden is calling for more security for his former opponent.
https://deepnewz.com/florida/biden-calls-more-secret-service-resources-after-second-trump-assassination-west
While this market is mostly about Trump, we include any of the major candidates for President or VP
Trump, Vance
Harris, Walz
RFJ Jr -- not Nicole Shanahan
We are basically asking -- will there be a credible, serious attempt on one of them before or on the day of the election. While they are under Secret Service protection.
A few caveats.
First, if you are uncomfortable with judgement calls please just don't bet this market. Similarly if you are a sore loser (you tend to argue any time you lose mana). Just don't be a part of this one please.
Most cases will be very clear but some judgement may be required. I'll both adjudicate and bet this market. If you don't like that, just please don't get involved.
Secondly, what constitutes a credible assassination attempt?
The "second Trump attempt" would be a good example. The attacker need not shoot at the President. If there is reasonable cause to think he would have done so, the authorities stopped him, and the Secret Service / FBI say they are treating it like an attempted assassination.
What if he was caught in the parking lot earlier, with two duffle bags of guns? Depends what else was found, and what the FBI says. If he had a suicide note saying he's about to go shoot at Trump, I would say that counts. If he could credibly argue that the guns were unrelated to Trump... a Biden/Harris bumper sticker would not be enough evidence of an assassination attempt.
If he were arrested 50 miles away it is very unlikely this would count, although it's possible if say he planted remotely detonated explosives on the golf course, or something like that.
If he was illegally flying a drone to scout the golf course, that would not count.
1,000
3.00There is no reason to think at thsi time this was an assassination attempt.
That could change but the man at Coachella was released on $5K bond... does not sound serious. Sheriff got too eager with the news.
"""
Miller was taken into custody before Trump’s rally and charged with firearms offenses. He was later released on $5,000 bail, according to the sheriff’s office.
CNN has repeatedly tried to reach Miller for comment. He is expected to appear in court on January 2, according to jail records.
Miller denied any claims of attempting to harm Trump, telling Fox News Digital on Sunday that he reported the guns to authorities at the checkpoint to enter the rally and that he always travels with the weapons. He said he is “100% a Trump supporter.”
"""
Possibly another assassination attempt
No idea how credible but 3rd assassination attempt is in the news
Reports seem to confirm the bomb scare in Nassau this morning was a false positive. Possibly a training exercise or who knows...
https://deepnewz.com/new-york/reports-explosives-found-near-trump-rally-nassau-coliseum-proven-false-eaff1cfd
In any case seems very unlikely that the market clears today. We're back on til November.
Even if the explosives at Trump Rally are true, we'd need evidence they were targeted at Trump, not "just" his supporters.
Say someone bombs a parking lot. It's bad, it's terrorism, but does it endanger the VIP inside? It may, if the person planting the bomb says so, for example. But if it's a small explosive device, seems more targeted at the crowd.
But that's just my read on this. Reading about it.
