Analysts are projecting a huge opening weekend for "Deadpool x Wolverine" crossover movie.
https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut
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The film, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Reynolds, is projected to earn between $340 million and $360 million globally in its opening weekend. This would mark the biggest opening weekend ever for an R-rated movie. Domestically, the film is expected to debut with $160 million to $170 million, making it the biggest R-rated opening of all-time.
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The record for biggest opening weekend for an R-rated movie is the original Deadpool at $284.5M ($152.2M domestic).
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-deadpool-makes-history-865143/
Will the new movie top these marks? It will probably be close...
It will certainly play at more theaters... Deadpool was a smash hit at the time, and a bit surprising.
Since BoxOfficeMojo is a bit weird on reporting international opening weekends -- it provides the raw numbers but aggregates them weirdly -- we will wait for Hollywood Reporter to let us know what the weekend opening was.
To clarify on resolution...
-> this market will resolve YES if Deadpool x Wolverine grosses more than $284.5M globally this opening weekend according to reports
-> AND the Hollywood Reporter (or equivalent publication) reports it as the record for an R-rated movie release
In other words the BoxOfficeMojo numbers should be seen as unofficial until there's confirmation in the Hollywood press. And the number we shoot for is >$284.5M internationally... this weekend
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smashing the record, with $200M domestic and 2x worldwide, according to many reports.
https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-breaks-r-rated-box-office-records-205m-domestic-438-3m
I see @Ziddletwix -- yes a bit confusing.
You're right we should use the opening weekend total and the $363,070,709 total is indeed the total domestic gross which is definitely not what we want.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2588706305/?ref_=bo_csw_table_1
Let's do this correctly and use the (~$285M) number cited
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-deadpool-makes-history-865143/
It would be easier to do the domestic opening gross as that is simple, but that's not how the market was written.
I appreciate the correction!
@Moscow25 Quick question/word of warning—global box office reporting is tricky/inconsistent!
The record for biggest opening weekend for an R-rated movie is the original Deadpool at $363,070,709 ($132,434,639 domestic).
I don't think this is quite right. The "Total Gross" column in that link refers to the domestic cumulative total, not the worldwide opening weekend (note on BOM the "Deadpool" 2016 domestic total is $363,070,709, exactly the figure you're citing).
From reporting at the time, it looks like the global opening for "Deadpool" (2016) was more like ~$285M. (In general, while WW weekend opening is something that gets reported in the press, it doesn't usually get specifically logged on BOM or TheNumbers AFAIK, because it's a bit of a fake number).
So I think you'll need to clarify if the bar for this market is the global opening for Deadpool (~$285M), or $363M as stated!
(and for bettors I'd be a bit wary in being too confident about "BoxOfficeMojo total after the weekend"—usually it updates to roughly match what the press reports, but when the sites update for global numbers can be wildly inconsistent. generally the press e.g. Deadline/THR/etc will have more reliable estimates for the global total. although global totals are pretty fake anyways, usually that estimate gets reported on sunday and doesn't really adjust, even before sunday's gross happens, unlike the domestic totals which get immediately corrected to the actuals on monday).