Who will win the San Francisco Mayoral Election in 2024?
๐Ÿ’Ž
Premium
31
แน€61k
resolved Nov 8
100%97%
Daniel Lurie
1.5%
Mayor London Breed
1.0%
Mark Farrell
0.2%
Aaron Peskin
0.1%
Ahsha Safai
0.1%
Other

As of May 2024 polling by GrowSF, this is a tight race between Mayor Breed, Mark Farrell, Aaron Peskin and Daniel Lurie, with Ahsha Safai also as a viable candidate.

https://growsf.org/pulse/growsf-pulse-may-2024-mayor/


The election will take place in November 2024. Mark Farrell is seen as the most conservative / pro business candidate, while Aaron Peskin is seen as representing the more liberal side of the current Board of Supervisors. Mayor Breed is seem as somewhat of a moderate, and the incumbent.

The other candidates are less well known by the public.

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What a market!

bought แน€6,000 Daniel Lurie YES

Current Polymarket odds. Lurie has surged a lot and been trading over 50% for some time now.
https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-london-breed-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1729807281252

Tricky election to forecast with rank preference voting. Another reason why most jurisdictions do top two then runoff.

Eggheads love ranked elections but very confusing for the average non-mathematician. I say that as an egghead myself

@Moscow25 Respectfully, the ability to forecast an election should not be an important consideration in deciding which format to use.

bought แน€50 Mayor London Breed YES

If you're interested in local elections further down the peninsula:

https://manifold.markets/DavidFWatson/which-candidates-will-win-seats-on

bought แน€222 Mayor London Breed NO
bought แน€135 Aaron Peskin YES

Now I see someone big but Aaron Peskin on Polymarket. What do they know?

@Moscow25 hedging, or <1% way too low, or both.

Bigger news is Breed is down to 14% on Polymarket, which seems a bit low.

@MikeLinksvayer yes that market has been bumpy

That do they know?

I think she has been trading too high at 30-40% but 14% seems low!

bought แน€69 Daniel Lurie YES

As we get closer to the election, I've also made this a Plus market ๐Ÿ‘

bought แน€121 Mark Farrell YES

Polymarket has this as a very close three part race. Though with Lurie leading now, as perhaps the "compromise" candidate?

https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-win-san-francisco-mayoral-election/will-london-breed-win-the-san-francisco-mayoral-election?tid=1729532096550

bought แน€20 Daniel Lurie YES

Recent polling for Lurie gives him a lot more value than this market, albeit most of the recent polling is paid for by his campaign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_San_Francisco_mayoral_election#Polling

@HenryRodgers agree that Lurie has emerged as the top "third option" -- whatever that's worth

Added some liquidity -- tell your friends

bought แน€400 Daniel Lurie NO

Pretty good summary right there.
https://x.com/mrp/status/1801405342288678972

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