Shawn Ryan had a podcast with a man who received an email on Proton Mail allegedly from Las Vegas Cybertruck bomber Matthew Livelsberger.
The email has been all over the internet since the podcast came out Jan 3rd.
The FBI has confirmed that the email might be real...
On the other hand a well know Green Beret with a big media channel is questioning its authenticity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAU0yNYEJbw
Let's bet on if this will ultimately resolved as authentic, or not.
Resolution can be tricky. So if you have a problem with that, don't bet this market.
The market will resolve NO if
it is clear that the letter was fake -- according to FBI, media, and general consensus
Matthew Livelsberger is found alive, gives a different explanation, etc
The market will resolve YES if
the letter is confirmed accurate by FBI and other sources
if dispute that it is real is minimal or fringe
We will resolve N/A if this is truly unclear after a substantial amount of time. Currently set at April 1st but we may extend if that makes sense. We will not leave this market open for a year.
The intent to reach a time when there is strong consensus one way or the other, and resolve the market as soon as that happens.
I may be betting this market.
I would like to make this the top market for discussion and interest in this fascinating case. If you want to argue about rule definitions or conflicts of interest, just stay away.
1,000
to be clear again -- this is a market for whether the email that Shawn Ryan read was from Matthew Livelsberger
YES if it was
NO if it was a forgery -- like the Bush docs that Dan Rather got in trouble for presenting... or many other fakes that media has knowingly or unwittingly presented over the years
the letter is weird and suspicious
but is it a forgery -- or came from the presumably dead Livelsberger?
this will resolve N/A if we don't have good information one way or another...
@Fay42 basically NO if letter was a forgery. Regardless of who forged it.
YES if letter is from Matthew “Berg” —- or very likely according to most people who dig into it.
N/A if it’s still super unclear after sometime
At the same time, this video is very compelling -- that the email is fake.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAU0yNYEJbw
The email is definitely weird! It does not make sense on face value. And the guy makes mistakes in facts, and so forth.
My personal opinion, as of right now -- is that yes the manifesto is authentic. But it's weird. Like he had some kind of psychologic breakdown.
I don't think he knows what he's talking about w/r/t the drone tech.
It's not uncommon for smart but not really technically competent people to over-react to a technology that they don't understand or work with. Like AI for example....