As of June 24th 2024, "Inside Out 2" as grossed over $700M and is the biggest movie of 2024 -- all in its first two weeks.
https://deepnewz.com/culture/inside-out-2-becomes-highest-grossing-film-2024-sets-100-million-second-weekend
Pixar's 'Inside Out 2' has become the highest-grossing film of 2024, surpassing 'Dune: Part Two'. In just two weeks, the film has grossed $724 million globally, with $355 million from North America and $285.7 million domestically. The sequel earned $100 million in its second weekend, setting a new record for an animated movie in its follow-up frame, making it the biggest second weekend for an animated film. It is also on track to be the first 2024 release to earn $1 billion at the worldwide box office. 'Inside Out 2' has outgrossed 'Kung Fu Panda 4' and is now the third highest-grossing film of 2024 globally. This achievement marks the 7th best second weekend ever.
Pixar's animated film is "on pace" to gross over $1B, but how high will this number get -- before the end of 2024?
The highest grossing movie of all time is Avatar -- at $2.9B. And more recent movies to gross over $1B include Barbie and Supermario Brothers in 2023, as well as Top Gun Maverick in 2022.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_lifetime_gross/?area=XWW
By comparison, Frozen "only" grossed $1.28B in 2013. So it seems that box office receipts have gone up since Covid -- be that inflation or a robust international market...
Let's see where "Inside Out 2" shakes out. With its even split between North America and International from the first two weeks, it could be a contender.
The market will be adjudicated according to official press releases, as box office numbers are widely reported.
1,000
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Hey Traders.
The movie is out of theaters in all international markets and doing 50 theaters in America two weeks ago
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I am going to resolve this early as very clear this will not do $300M more unless it's re-released this year, and even then.
If you object please let me know. But at this point this is just tying up capital. No chance it gets to $2B...
@Moscow25 looks like boxofficemojo is no longer updating its daily gross, so it's probably safe to say it's out of theaters, and this can resolve. (but fine if your plan is to wait until EOY regardless)
@Ziddletwix Thanks! I’ll take a look.
I am all for early resolution.
The movie could have a re-release. But incredibly unlikely.
Inside Out 2 continues to print.
https://deepnewz.com/economics/inside-out-2-first-animated-film-to-surpass-1-billion-internationally-reaches-1
$1.649B Globally and still doing a few million per week in US, and more globally [where it came out later]
It's hard to do comps since the $2B movies we look at are action movies, not cartoons.
Cartoons tend to linger longer and fall more slowly.
But we already are approaching the biggest cartoons of all time. And the Lion King... is an older and special case.
Perhaps the best comp is "Frozen II" -- but it also benefitted from a nice bump over Christmas.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2424210945/weekly/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs
In any case it had a nice 2-1 split favoring the international audience. Which Hollywood has leaned into more and more with cartoons.
If Frozen II / III came out in 2024 I'm sure it would cross over $2B...
Updates as of July 20th heading into the weekend
we are at $1.4B
16th place all time
still only dropped to #3 in US -- still doing $33M weekly and declining by 35-40% weekly as planned
I still have not seen the movie
the question is will we get to $2B -- seems unlikely but not impossible... would probably need a second leg somewhere...
It's doing -40% on preview week every week in US
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3638199041/weekly/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs
Very normal rate of decay
That suggests $1-1.5b is probably undervalued. https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Inside-Out-2-(2024)/Barbie-(2023)#tab=day_by_day_comparison
Inside Out 2 — fastest cartoon to ever hit $1B
But Despicable Me 4 came in and stole the July 4th box office
Consider a very similar comp! Finding Dory -- sequel to Finding Nemo...
This Pixar movie was released the same weekend in June, timed to get a second wind over July 4th weekend...
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3764946433/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs
It stayed #1 for four weeks -- concluding with the July 4th weekend. After which it trailed off gracefully, losing 30-50% of receipts per week.
It ended up grossing just over $1B all time... with early numbers that look just like our film but 50% smaller. And a similar early weekly decline.
So on the surface of it... I'd be looking at our movie as a $2B film. Call it inflation?
FWIW I have seen none of these movies. I'm they are great.
UK is shrinking more slowly... and it's still been #1 for three weekends, in all major markets.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2372960257/weekend/
If I had to project it
the movie is out in all major markets around the same time
it's still #1 in every major market
the non-US markets are shrinking more slowly that the US
Knowing nothing -- other than it's an animated movie, and clearly well-positioned for the international market... I would expect that the current weekly shrinking rate will be similar but a bit less internationally than the US.
But we will see!
What happens when the film is no longer number one?
Domestically (US gross) the movie has been out for two full weeks...
It was #1 both weeks. Week two fell from $255M down to $156M but pretty good 2/3 carry from opening weekend.
Those who remember their pre-calculus can project what area under the curve looks like for a sequence that's shrinking by 1/3 every week...
But it looks like somewhere between 1.5x to 2.0x from here on out on domestic receipts would be a reasonable projection -- based on this time series alone.
The three weekend series shows a slightly bigger drop
The bigger question is international. The movie is still in week one in some markets.