why didn't you just do multiple winners

@littleMAHER1 what are you talking about?

Number 8 all time, and top movie of 2024. Not bad.

Hey Traders.

The movie is out of theaters in all international markets and doing 50 theaters in America two weeks ago

.
I am going to resolve this early as very clear this will not do $300M more unless it's re-released this year, and even then.

If you object please let me know. But at this point this is just tying up capital. No chance it gets to $2B...

@Moscow25 looks like boxofficemojo is no longer updating its daily gross, so it's probably safe to say it's out of theaters, and this can resolve. (but fine if your plan is to wait until EOY regardless)

@Ziddletwix Thanks! I’ll take a look.

I am all for early resolution.

The movie could have a re-release. But incredibly unlikely.

Inside Out 2 continues to print.
https://deepnewz.com/economics/inside-out-2-first-animated-film-to-surpass-1-billion-internationally-reaches-1

$1.649B Globally and still doing a few million per week in US, and more globally [where it came out later]

In 12th place now. Slowing down but still #3 nationally, still doing $20M per week domestically alone.

Getting to $2B would be a tough task. But edging ahead of The Lion King seems in play... will make top ten for sure... and a second wind isn't out of the question...

Will it beat Lion King?

Hakuna Matata!

but yes we should have created more threshold like $1.8B

I should probably see the movie. I'm sure it's very good...

It's hard to do comps since the $2B movies we look at are action movies, not cartoons.

Cartoons tend to linger longer and fall more slowly.

But we already are approaching the biggest cartoons of all time. And the Lion King... is an older and special case.

Perhaps the best comp is "Frozen II" -- but it also benefitted from a nice bump over Christmas.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2424210945/weekly/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

In any case it had a nice 2-1 split favoring the international audience. Which Hollywood has leaned into more and more with cartoons.

If Frozen II / III came out in 2024 I'm sure it would cross over $2B...

Updates as of July 20th heading into the weekend

• we are at $1.4B

• 16th place all time

• still only dropped to #3 in US -- still doing $33M weekly and declining by 35-40% weekly as planned

• I still have not seen the movie

• the question is will we get to $2B -- seems unlikely but not impossible... would probably need a second leg somewhere...

Up to $1.3B -- four weeks into the release

It's doing -40% on preview week every week in US
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3638199041/weekly/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

Very normal rate of decay

That suggests $1-1.5b is probably undervalued. https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Inside-Out-2-(2024)/Barbie-(2023)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

I don’t see how it grosses under 1.5B

Still going strong.

Barbie numbers were within about 1% of Inside Out 2 at this point and grossed $1.432b total. It'll be close unless it outperforms.

I don’t dispute your math but my comps are cartoons which may be different

Inside Out 2 — fastest cartoon to ever hit $1B

But Despicable Me 4 came in and stole the July 4th box office

https://deepnewz.com/culture/inside-out-2-becomes-fastest-animated-film-to-hit-1-billion-19-days-despicable-4

Consider a very similar comp! Finding Dory -- sequel to Finding Nemo...

This Pixar movie was released the same weekend in June, timed to get a second wind over July 4th weekend...
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3764946433/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs

It stayed #1 for four weeks -- concluding with the July 4th weekend. After which it trailed off gracefully, losing 30-50% of receipts per week.

It ended up grossing just over $1B all time... with early numbers that look just like our film but 50% smaller. And a similar early weekly decline.

So on the surface of it... I'd be looking at our movie as a $2B film. Call it inflation?

FWIW I have seen none of these movies. I'm they are great.

UK is shrinking more slowly... and it's still been #1 for three weekends, in all major markets.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2372960257/weekend/

If I had to project it
the movie is out in all major markets around the same time

it's still #1 in every major market
the non-US markets are shrinking more slowly that the US

Knowing nothing -- other than it's an animated movie, and clearly well-positioned for the international market... I would expect that the current weekly shrinking rate will be similar but a bit less internationally than the US.

But we will see!

What happens when the film is no longer number one?

That said Mexico has also been out for three weeks and the rate of decline is exactly the same as US...

Domestically (US gross) the movie has been out for two full weeks...

It was #1 both weeks. Week two fell from $255M down to $156M but pretty good 2/3 carry from opening weekend.

Those who remember their pre-calculus can project what area under the curve looks like for a sequence that's shrinking by 1/3 every week...

But it looks like somewhere between 1.5x to 2.0x from here on out on domestic receipts would be a reasonable projection -- based on this time series alone.

The three weekend series shows a slightly bigger drop

The bigger question is international. The movie is still in week one in some markets.