Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the number of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members who dissent in the vote to pause interest rates during the July 29–30, 2025, meeting. A dissent is defined as a member voting against the majority decision to maintain the current federal funds rate. The official FOMC statement and meeting minutes, published on the Federal Reserve's website, will serve as the primary sources for determining the outcome. (federalreserve.gov)

Background

The FOMC comprises 12 voting members: the seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The 2025 voting members include:

• Board of Governors: Jerome H. Powell (Chair), John C. Williams (Vice Chair), Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Philip N. Jefferson, Adriana D. Kugler, Christopher J. Waller

• Regional Bank Presidents: Susan M. Collins (Boston), Austan D. Goolsbee (Chicago), Alberto G. Musalem (St. Louis), Jeffrey R. Schmid (Kansas City)

(en.wikipedia.org)

Recent FOMC meetings have shown minimal dissent. For instance, the June 18, 2025, meeting concluded with a unanimous vote to maintain the federal funds rate at 4.25%–4.50%. (federalreserve.gov) However, individual members have occasionally dissented in the past. Notably, in the March 19, 2025, meeting, Governor Christopher J. Waller voted against the decision to leave the target range unchanged, preferring no change in the federal funds target range and continuing the pace of decline in securities holdings. (federalreserve.gov)

Considerations

While recent meetings have exhibited consensus, the FOMC's composition includes members with diverse perspectives on monetary policy. For example, Governor Waller has previously advocated for rate cuts amid concerns over economic momentum and labor market risks. (reuters.com) Additionally, political pressures and economic uncertainties, such as the impact of tariffs and inflationary concerns, may influence members' voting behavior. (reuters.com) Traders should consider these factors when predicting potential dissents in the upcoming meeting.