Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the Federal Reserve's decision regarding the federal funds rate at the conclusion of its meeting on July 30, 2025. The possible outcomes are:

• Increase Rate: If the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.

• No Change: If the FOMC maintains the current target range for the federal funds rate.

• Decrease Rate: If the FOMC announces a decrease in the target range for the federal funds rate.

The official announcement will be available on the Federal Reserve's website.

Background

As of June 18, 2025, the FOMC has maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% since December 2024. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 29-30, 2025. (federalreserve.gov)

Recent economic indicators have shown mixed signals. A weaker-than-expected private sector jobs report for June 2025 revealed a decline of 33,000 jobs, increasing market expectations for a potential rate cut. Following this report, the probability of a July rate cut rose to 27%, up from 23% prior to the data release. (reuters.com)

Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has suggested that the central bank should consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting in July, highlighting growing divisions among Fed officials. (apnews.com)

Considerations

While some Fed officials advocate for a rate cut, others, including Chair Jerome Powell, have emphasized the need to assess the economic impact of recent tariffs before making rate decisions. Powell has indicated that the Fed is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and will carefully assess incoming data. (federalreserve.gov)

Market participants should monitor upcoming economic data releases and statements from Fed officials leading up to the July meeting, as these will provide further insights into the potential direction of monetary policy.