This market will resolve to yes if Donald Trump wins Miami-Dade county in the state of Florida in 2024.

I will primarily use the NYT results to resolve this although I will wait for certification if the result is extremely close.

In 2020 Joe Biden carried Miami-Dade county by just 7 points, a far cry from Clinton’s near 30 point margin just 4 years earlier. Miami-Dade went on to vote for both Marco Rubio and Ron DeSantis in 2022. Can Trump become the first Republican to win the county on the presidential level for the first time in 36 years?