Will there be a tape or hot mic released of Donald Trump saying a hard R between now and Election Day? Tape or hot mic can have been recorded at any time, just released publicly or leaked before Election Day.
Judging authenticity of such a tape is always difficult - if there’s a tape with multiple people claiming that it’s authentic, and somehow verified as authentic, this market would resolve yes.
If there is a tape of dubious origin with no really way to verify, I don’t think I would count that as a verified hot mic or tape.
The Harris camp wants hot mikes when the other candidate isn't speaking. Buy buy.
https://x.com/zackstanton/status/1828015417765269709?t=l6ul9HzP7wi_Kgqlqv7P9w&s=09
@MoezJanmohammad does it have to be authentic, and if so, how will you determine this?
IMO, credibility is the stickiest part about this event. I have fairy high confidence that he's used the word at some point in the last 20 years, and has even been caught on mic. But for it to matter politically -- to be newsworthy -- someone will need to come forward not just with the tape, but vouching their reputation on its authenticity. They'll need a believable motivation, but not to be too stongly motivated.
If authenticity doesn't matter, give me five minutes and we can resolve this market right now.