Will there be a tape or hot mic with Donald Trump saying a hard R before Election Day 2024?
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Nov 7
4%
chance

Will there be a tape or hot mic released of Donald Trump saying a hard R between now and Election Day? Tape or hot mic can have been recorded at any time, just released publicly or leaked before Election Day.

Judging authenticity of such a tape is always difficult - if there’s a tape with multiple people claiming that it’s authentic, and somehow verified as authentic, this market would resolve yes.

If there is a tape of dubious origin with no really way to verify, I don’t think I would count that as a verified hot mic or tape.

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bought Ṁ50 YES

@StephenBuggy

The Harris camp wants hot mikes when the other candidate isn't speaking. Buy buy.

https://x.com/zackstanton/status/1828015417765269709?t=l6ul9HzP7wi_Kgqlqv7P9w&s=09

reposted

the idea that he did this and it leaks is funny to me so im reposting this

@MoezJanmohammad does it have to be authentic, and if so, how will you determine this?

IMO, credibility is the stickiest part about this event. I have fairy high confidence that he's used the word at some point in the last 20 years, and has even been caught on mic. But for it to matter politically -- to be newsworthy -- someone will need to come forward not just with the tape, but vouching their reputation on its authenticity. They'll need a believable motivation, but not to be too stongly motivated.

If authenticity doesn't matter, give me five minutes and we can resolve this market right now.

That’s a good question and one that I had not thought of.

I think if there’s a verified tape with multiple people claiming it’s authenticity, it would resolve as true.

I’ll add this to the market.

This means the n-word right, not just the letter r?

Resolving based on the 'letter r' interpretation would, I think, be overruled by the mods because then the market's an obvious attempt to trick people and that isn't allowed!

Correct

Can the market be edited to be clearer please?

bought Ṁ200 NO

asking the important questions