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MANIFOLD
Will my cowardice recede in 2026? (According to Bayesian)
9
Ṁ100Ṁ312
Dec 31
85%
chance

I am a pussy when it comes to making large bets. This market resolves based on @Bayesian assessment of my cowardice and whether it recedes in 2026.

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@Bayesian can I resolve YES?

Since unlike in the kelly model you can almost always borrow against your future expected earnings as a competent trader, so your risk of going truly bust is much lower, you should be even more aggressive than kelly betting says, and make giga dough

@Bayesian quoting this whenever i next trade against you

bought Ṁ50 YES

I will ask for @Bayesian assessment of my cowardice throughout the year and it will resolve to whatever he says.