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Whooooooops

quick submarket for Zendaya to arrive at VF Oscars afterparty but not Oscars: https://manifold.markets/ShaneBo/will-zendaya-skip-the-2026-oscars-b?r=U2hhbmVCbw

for @Mochi https://www.harpersbazaar.com/celebrity/latest/a70701044/why-zendaya-tom-holland-skipped-2026-oscars-explained/

I see the confusion, but seems unlikely to be at 60% right now

@ShaneBo I will go by Kalshi https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoscarguests/oscar-guests/KXOSCARGUESTS-26?utm_source=kalshiapp_eventpage

@Mochi fair, I see the news from her stylist as overweighted as that implication appears to have happened at other recent awards shows and other more credible reporting and precedent(last few oscars ) suggest the opposite. BUT betting money does seem to have wavering between 40-60

Would you clarify if these are Oscars 2026 or 2027 as the current closing date is March 16th 2027.

@NBonev this years Oscar, changed close date to reflect