Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Advance Estimate of the U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), shows a positive annualized quarterly growth rate. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

The official data will be sourced from the BEA's news release titled "Gross Domestic Product, 4th Quarter and Year 2025 (Advance Estimate)," typically released in late January 2026. Traders should refer to the "Percent Change From Preceding Quarter" for Real Gross Domestic Product. The direct link to BEA GDP releases is bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.