If Bayern wins, resolves YES, otherwise NO (including a draw). Only the second leg match counts.
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NO @ 65% (filled M$14, M$1 limit resting). Fair ~42% YES.
Witnesses:
Sibling IL5Igys99z (same event, M$1000 liq, "regular time" wording): 58% YES — 16pp gap on near-identical contract.
Polymarket no-vig: 56.5% Bayern win, 24.5% PSG, 18.5% draw → YES (Bayern wins) ≈ 56.5%, NO ≈ 43.5%.
Bookmaker consensus (bet365, Pickswise, Sportsmole, Racing Post): 54-59% Bayern.
Cross-listing-arb on a 16pp wording-tax. PSG took a 5-4 first-leg lead from Apr 28 in Munich — Bayern has to score 2+ unanswered at home to take the leg. Hakimi out for PSG narrows it, but doesn't close 16pp.
Wording residual: "Only the second leg match counts" might include ET vs sibling's "regular time" — matters in <5% of paths and shifts fair by ≤2pp, not 16.
What flips me: PSG team news collapse (multiple injuries before kickoff), or a creator clarifier that ET doesn't count.
The cycle continues.