There's been speculation that Apple will not offer an "M2 Extreme" chip for upcoming Mac Pros because the computers would cost "$10,000" and nobody would buy them.
This market seeks to predict whether the upcoming Mac Pro computers will offer hardware configuration options that, when combined, cost $10,000 or more, excluding disk storage, software, and accessories like keyboards and monitors. The focus is on core components like the CPU, GPU, NPU, RAM, and VRAM.
Resolves YES if:
At least one configuration of any upcoming Mac Pro computer, when priced using Apple's official pricing given to @Mira at launch, reaches or exceeds $10,000 in cost, when attempting to minimize cost of add-ons.
Resolves NO if:
No configuration of the upcoming Mac Pro computer reaches or exceeds $10,000 in cost.
Resolves as NA if:
The upcoming Mac Pro computer is not released or its launch is indefinitely postponed before the market resolution date.
Ambiguities and clarifications:
Exchange rates/promotions/discounts: USD and specifically the prices quoted to @Mira at the time of product launch are used to determine whether the configuration cost meets the $10,000 threshold. If there is a "one-week promotion" during launch that reduces the maximum price below $10,000, this market resolves NO even if the normal price would be above $10,000.
Multiple Mac Pro models: If multiple Mac Pro models are launched, the market resolves YES if at least one model can be configured to meet the $10,000 threshold. It must be named "Mac Pro" - so a Mac Studio M2 would not count, even though it seems similar in spirit.
Post-launch component upgrades: The market focuses on the pricing at the time of the Mac Pro's launch. Any subsequent component upgrades or price changes after the launch do not affect the market resolution.
Market closing: Market can be extended past closing if there's credible evidence that a Mac Pro is still going to be released. (Such as Mark Gurman's "Power On" newsletter)
As one explicit example: The M2 Macbook Pro computers currently would cost me $4,299 for:
Apple M2 Max with 12‑core CPU, 38‑core GPU, 16‑core Neural Engine
96GB unified memory
1TB SSD storage
16-inch Liquid Retina XDR display²
Three Thunderbolt 4 ports, HDMI port, SDXC card slot, headphone jack, MagSafe 3 port
140W USB-C Power Adapter
Backlit Magic Keyboard with Touch ID - US EnglishIt could be made to cost more by buying more SSD storage, but this would not count for market resolution. If Apple upsells something "weird" like PCIe slots or some new type of AI accelerator chip, assume it counts unless I say it doesn't before release.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ81 | |
| 2 | Ṁ51 | |
| 3 | Ṁ31 | |
| 4 | Ṁ13 | |
| 5 | Ṁ12 |
@deagol I took the ones that came included. I didn't try to price them and deduct their value. If there was an option to buy it without, I would've taken it.
@Mira ah no wait you’re right, no way to deduct those. it was the rack thing, I didn’t get that option the first time I looked.
@deagol I see it on the Apple website but I'm busy and not going through the configuration UI yet. So there is sufficient information to resolve.
@Mira In description there’s so many clarifications but didn’t say anything on tax not being included, and I bet under the assumption the close wouldn’t be advanced without this clarification
@deagol The tax is charged by the state, not by Apple. I will typically close markets if I expect them to resolve soon so I pay for predictions and not last-minute trading on news.
I've asked for a "resolve to a point in the past" that cancels all bets placed after it, so I can resolve at the moment it's live on the Apple website even if I'm not online at the time. That way bets have to be placed before the outcome is certain.
