I have been unemployed, lazy, and picky the last couple years, surviving only off of investments and stock market trading, because I have had "enough" for the projects and such that I wanted to do. Unfortunately, hardware requirements to train the latest AI models and GPU prices have risen such that I will need to find some more money to be competitive, since I don't plan to sell my house to fund AI training runs.

My advisors say the sensible thing to do would be to join OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind, and use their hardware:

Unfortunately, they have likely rejected me: /Mira/if-mira-applies-to-openai-will-mira . Any interviewers will rue the day they thought themselves fit to judge me, but their reckoning will not come in 2024: /Mira/will-mira-cause-human-extinction-by .

So I will have to locate an additional $1 million myself to stay competitive. I don't need any other people, only compute; so I will likely not start a company scoped larger than something I could run entirely myself, and am unlikely to seek any investment if I do since it would implicitly put restrictions on my compute.

For this market, "$1 million" should be USD-equivalent because dollars can be stockpiled and invested for later(2025). So compute scoped for a specific project in 2024 would not count, because I'm not able to stockpile Moore's law-adjusted compute for projects in 2025. However, restricted compute that can be productively turned into USD would count at whatever the multiplier is on that.

Resolves YES if at the end of 2024, I confirm I have an additional $1 million unrestricted compared to now that I can spend on projects throughout 2025. NO otherwise, including if I stop using Manifold and nobody can confirm. Also I might cancel this market if nobody trades on it.

Previous years' incomes are similar to(mostly from trading, dividends, rental income, and interest):

• 2021: $500k

• 2022: $200k

• 2023: $120k (but I haven't done my taxes yet: /Mira/how-many-pages-will-mira-s-taxes-be )

so it would not be impossible if I get a software job and also trade very actively on off-hours for the whole year, if I make a very lucky trade, or if somebody buys a company or company equity from me for $700k+. "Raising money" such that the company gets the money and not me wouldn't count, because then the implied USD-equivalent compute would be restricted. So this market won't resolve YES "by default".

Income can be pretax, since theoretically just before 2025 I could spend it on GPU-hours and deduct it if I structure it properly, even if I don't actually do that. Income can also be in non-taxable accounts or illiquid assets, as long as I have the option to sell or cash out even if at a discount or penalty.

And yes, I currently plan to spend an entire year making money, just to spend it on GPUs or GPU hours in 2025.