Will OpenAI's Jukebox 2 be released? (2023)
Will OpenAI's Jukebox 2 be released? (2023)
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290Ṁ3366resolved Jan 1
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Resolves YES if a successor to OpenAI's Jukebox (openai.com) is released before market close. Otherwise NO. This market does not resolve NA or PROB.
"Jukebox 2" is any autoencoder and transformer-based audio generation model that generates raw audio(as opposed to MIDI), can generate at least rudimentary approximations to singing; or that is explicitly named "Jukebox 2".
Also see the 2024 variant:
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They've had it in internal Slack for a year now, but can't release because of copyright. You can imagine NYT vs. OpenAI gets 100x worse if the RIAA gets involved.
Maybe the play is for a startup to do it and get sued so they have nothing to lose, and then once precedent is established the big players can roll theirs out.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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