Will nobody randomly roll a number below market price?
Mini
12
2.3k
2025
27%
chance

Once every month(PST), people can roll 0-100 on the Fairly Random bot by writing "@FairlyRandom min=0 max=100" in a comment. The first such roll in a month is used. If the result is less than the market probability as of when @Mira or @MiraBot likes the bot's response comment which contains the answer, then this market resolves NO. Resolves YES at end of 2024.

Bot rolls 0: Market resolves NO unless price is pushed so low that it displays 0%.

Bot rolls 100: Market is guaranteed to continue another month or resolve YES.

Bot rolls 50, market price is 49%: Market continues another month.

Bot rolls 50, market price is 51%: Market resolves NO.

Bot rolls 50, market price is 50%: Market continues another month.

Displayed percentage is used for comparison. If a UI or caching bug causes the displayed probability to be incorrect, whatever number @Mira sees first after liking the comment that is believed to be the current market price is used.

If @Mira quits Manifold, then this market resolves YES by default since no response comments will be liked.

@Mira will not bet in this market or strategically time likes to influence the winner, though I make no commitment to check on this market on any schedule. Traders may want to ping me so I get an email.

If a roll would qualify but the year ends before @Mira likes the response comment, then this market resolves YES.

Rolls by @Mira or @MiraBot do not count.

A valid roll that is not liked until next month still counts, without disqualifying next month's roll.

Rolls are in aggregate, not per-person. So if 1000 people roll in a month, only the first roll counts.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
🤖

### @Bair your random number is: 11

Salt: 6kgu39wmn5x, round: 4235710 (signature 8ef2150fa2e2412e94a7e93e3bb70b074b532b62bda8f4f7dfc5a2a300220c8bee6c371ebc5ce0a36477d16b3176005f0e6b9ff7d6c75beb69b52d1750ecd91a401f1e2936cf08b14d26c7791633d49f927973ecd6ab600d674cab589241698b)

@Mira_ looks like this one hit!

market was 11% when I checked just now. It has to be less.

looks like it would've counted had @Bair not sold his NO.

dang

🤖

### @Bair you asked for a random integer between 0 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4235708 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4235710, salt: 6kgu39wmn5x.

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=100

opened a Ṁ34 NO at 32% order

Just to clarify, will there be a maximum of five more attempts (Aug - Dec)?

yes

🤖

### @ML12d1 your random number is: 27

Salt: kxc8xdryifb, round: 4164056 (signature aa470def1e3d20af1a303c9d25135305d2dc27abcae41c7ee666c8123c49f71f6ea069328c864bda320d5599fe275bbc17d5b92dcb0e6b83f502588fe9f8b74e19986a41f382a5143947df27fcb83f035a243c8173037ee01858f69a1772a750)

Market is 24% when I see this. 24<27 so it continues another month.

🤖

### @ML12d1 you asked for a random integer between 0 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4164054 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4164056, salt: kxc8xdryifb.

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=100

🤖

### @loops your random number is: 73

Salt: r46yzfglk3b, round: 3922600 (signature 973d8af802c5f581cecc26586a9c50e0f2785bee75f68fbb042baeeac056d38901a84ce4b109a3cae79c56d246c0374a0ba78fa38649b5b09ddbd57dd0726ed1b1f358de2cb2ed56860121bf659145c58f160ea9bfb6377393d5c5fef8c82c12)

@FairlyRandom Market was 16% when I checked.

🤖

### @loops you asked for a random integer between 0 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3922598 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3922600, salt: r46yzfglk3b.

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=100

🤖

### @dominic your random number is: 53

Salt: ra5s7qxsqz, round: 3796395 (signature 86f954cba9842c63e89f5489412ccffc32414aafd9529a7fb71521da410a980b73146870c0711ca23a3356c9ff4dbb2f0138b72d9db135ed05c6af4e005439c5e04793c47c704ac6df51f5ef727dc3dda4765a060f712cd7af855339f6447b03)

@FairlyRandom Market was at 16% when I liked it.

🤖

### @dominic you asked for a random integer between 0 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3796393 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3796395, salt: ra5s7qxsqz.

@FairlyRandom min=0 max=100

🤖

### @dominic your random number is: 60

Salt: c9hxuivz88j, round: 3794786 (signature b6df5d4d088f0d2195d435987a5ac2b6f01a71d85949f6c3db8dd5818f9a7b326a8432bdc133bd3bf58e6ea45aa961d503998ac9d66f026bb359b86da199de24763e0aeb70e01f319c53d68bb7d2d51a765b865720a8acb5b1e3b3b4280f3f96)

@FairlyRandom This one doesn't count.

@MiraBot Ah, thought it was EST

🤖

### @dominic you asked for a random integer between 0 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 3794784 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 3794786, salt: c9hxuivz88j.

Comment hidden