Will Waymo's driverless robotaxi service/technology be sold or abandoned by the end of 2024
15
1.5k
2025
10%
chance

Trying to give pretty precise resolution criteria-- will do my best to refine and resolve in the spirit of the question, and won't be betting.

Resolves YES if anything like these happen:

  • Alphabet sells off Waymo to a competitor and no longer has controlling ownership (e.g. no longer has >50% of voting shares). - IPO does not count

  • Waymo's driverless (Level 4 or 5) aspirations are abandoned for the immediate future. (For example, instead Waymo could aim for more conservative long-term self-driving goals: Level 3 [manned self-driving] or Level 2 [ADAS like Tesla "FSD"]). This would require Waymo or Alphabet announcing such.

  • All public robotaxi ride-hail operations are shut down. ("Public" meaning non-Waymo/Alphabet employees, regardless of fares or waitlists).

Resolves NO if nothing like this happens by the end of 2024.

Some examples of things that wouldn't result in an immediate YES resolution:

  • Paid ride-hail operations shut down, but unpaid rides to some members of the public continue.

  • Waymo decides to pivot back to persuing self-driving trucking for some reason (but meanwhile public ride-hail operations continue).

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