Who will win Horse Race Test Tournament: Here Racehorses Transcend?
39
5kṀ20k
May 7
4%
Yellow
17%
Blue/Bullet'n Board
36%
Brown/Door Knob
9%
Pink/Comely Material Morning
6%
Grey/Downtown Skybox
3%
Red/Resolute Mind Afternoon
4%
White/Superstitional Realism (Unconfirmed)
3%
Cyan (Unconfirmed)
1.8%
Draw
17%
Other

Resolves to the horse that wins @snakesandrews' Horse Race Test Tournament: Here Racehorses Transcend on Twitter.


Judging by the announcement video, there will be 12 contestants, which appears to include three shadowy horses, one glowing white horse, and also White/Superstitional Realism and Cyan, though these have not been confirmed. Once the tournament starts, I will try to add any other confirmed contestants as answers, but no promises. In the meantime, you can bet on "Other". (On Manifold, bets placed on the "Other" option are automatically transferred to any new options added later.)

If the amount of winners is 0, 2, or any number other than 1, Draw will resolve YES. If the tournament is unresolved and more than a week passes without updates or it is clearly cancelled with no new tournament to replace it, Draw will resolve YES.

Otherwise, if there is exactly 1 winner, this market will resolve to the corresponding option. The winning horse does not need to have the same name as an option to count, only the corresponding color.* If the horse does not clearly correspond to any of the colors above, it will count as Other.

(*However, if there are multiple horses corresponding to one color, any horse that does not bear the name of the original horse will count as "Other" if it wins. E.g, if Jovial Merryment and another orange horse are both in the race, Jovial Merryment will count as Orange and the other orange horse will count as Other. If only one orange horse is present, it will always count as Orange.)

I will not bet in this market. In the event of significant ambiguity, I will consult traders and use my own best judgment.

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