Will I interact with a (marriageable) woman in 2024?
91
1.5k
2.3k
2025
61%
chance

By "marriageable" I mean:

  • A biological woman

  • Attracted to men

  • Of an age I could reasonably assume might be interested in me (22-30)

  • Who is verifiably available/single/poly/whatever

By "interact" I mean:

  • Engage in conversation for more than 45 minutes

  • In person

  • In a context that could reasonably prelude romantic escalation (bar, party, conference, coffee machine, etc.)

I don't generally talk to women. This isn't a shyness thing, it just never happens. I have essentially no social venues for meeting them (all-male job, all-male-friend-group), am always in crazy places doing business and don't go cold approaching people at bars.

The last time I talked to a woman that fit these criteria was November 2023. Before that, it was sometime in 2022. This market has been heavily subsidized and I will not bet.

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You seem pretty down to earth, betting yes.

How is it going?

@JimAusman Nothing so far.

predicts YES

Aren't all women biological? Like, you don't mean a robot or an AI, right?

@SoundsNentindo I've poked and he means "people with a uterus". I guess he's afraid to say words like "uterus" and "vulva" (if he even knows that one), maybe they'll give him cooties.

predicts YES

@BrunoParga oh gotcha. i'll have to adjust my bets according to that data.

@SoundsNentindo "biological woman" and "cis woman" mean the same thing in standard American parliance.

Also, this seems relevant:

https://thezvi.substack.com/p/dating-roundup-1-this-is-why-youre

A key takeaway: You are very far from alone in being single, wanting a relationship, but not being willing to try for one. There are a bunch of single people like that. Which means if you switch strategies and actively try to make the things you want to happen happen, the ratio of men to women in your city is basically irrelevant, because there are a large number of people out there you could match with who are taking a passive strategy, and so likely not meeting all that many people. (You can also match with those taking an active strategy, of course).

Conditional on you deciding to do so, I would bet yes. Otherwise, probably not. If you live in a city of a million people, you can talk to women if you decide you want to and take action to make that happen, but the chance of it happening by chance while you sit and hope a woman you haven't met yet will randomly try to talk to you while spending most of your time in all-male spaces is pretty small. "I have no social venues, all male job, all male friends" etc. are excuses. If you want to date women, go talk to some. If you're bad at that, the fact you're in a city of a million people means you can afford to screw up and learn without alienating all the available women.

Conditional on you deciding to do so, I would bet yes. Otherwise, probably not. If you live in a city of a million people, you can talk to women if you decide you want to and take action to make that happen

Correct

"I have no social venues, all male job, all male friends" etc. are excuses.

I'm didn't say that those things doom me to loneliness. They're just explanations for my current situation.

@MilfordHammerschmidt I see below that when asked "do you want to talk to women" your answer was yes, but when asked "do you plan on making an active effort to" your answer was no.

Why not?

Since you've not replied yet, I doubt you will - and that's fine, you're not obligated to share things you don't want to with random people on the Internet.

I will note that you have said all 3 of these things, either in the market description, or in comments.

I don't generally talk to women. This isn't a shyness thing, it just never happens. I have essentially no social venues for meeting them (all-male job, all-male-friend-group), am always in crazy places doing business and don't go cold approaching people at bars.

I'm didn't say that those things doom me to loneliness. They're just explanations for my current situation.

Obviously the main reason I have not even interacted with a woman my age in several months is because I have made no serious attempt to do so.

I agree with your assessment in the third quote. The first quote suggests that talking to women just never happens because of the factors listed, without listing the one you acknowledge as the main reason. By saying the things in the first quote were excuses, I meant that they weren't the main reason/explanation for your current situation.

Whatever your reason for not talking to women even though you'd like to is, addressing that reason is what you need to do (absent some serious luck) in order to succeed in your aspiration to eventually have superbabies. If you had asked me when I was your age why I didn't attempt to date women (I had more friends who were women than friends who were men, so I definitely talked to women, but not in situations where I might get dates) I would have said that it was because I didn't think they would be interested in me in that way - I didn't want to ruin the friendships I had by making them turn me down, and didn't have the confidence to approach women who were not my friends and ask them out. There was some work for me to do, on myself, due to various things that had happened when I was younger, before I would eventually be in a good position to be good partner for a woman.

Even with some serious luck, your strategy of never talking to women unless they initiate the conversation and then turning them down if they do show an interest in you, will in fact doom you to loneliness, or at least, being perpetually single (which can be OK, particularly if you've got good friends). So, assuming you don't want that outcome, at the very least, stop doing that. If some woman approaches you and says she would like a date, say yes rather than no, unless you have a definitive reason to think it would be a bad idea. Even if she's not a supergenius with whom you can have superbabies, getting some practice at interacting with women on dates and such will make it more likely that phase of the relationship will go better when you do meet a woman you'd eventually like to marry.

Best of luck! :)

@equinoxhq That was super depressing to read. Not saying you said anything wrong. But you just said all of my worst fears out loud. 🤣

@Purist I'm not exactly sure which part you find depressing, but in case it helps to hear this, if you have fears around what will happen if you talk to or try to date women, they're probably not accurate reflections of what would actually happen. Severe fears, in general, in most contexts, tend to be overblown. Often people feel like they might die or suffer some other very severe and long-lasting consequence, but, no.

@equinoxhq Rationally I understand that. But it doesnt help. And anyway I was talking about the fact that being shy is pretty much deathblow. I was saying myself this, and sometimes to feel better I tell myself that I might be overplaying the severity. But deep down I know it is hopeless. Didnt mean to dump all this here. But the conversation felt very related. Thanks.

@Purist Well... being shy is one thing. Being sufficiently socially anxious or otherwise fearful that you cannot go talk to people, is a little stronger than being shy. I don't know where you sit on the line from "introverted" to "much more extreme and debilitating social anxiety". But, speaking as someone who, the first time I ordered a pizza over the phone, I ended up with my hands shaking and needed to calm myself down while going "why am I responding in this way to this clearly safe situation?"... you can train your brain to understand intuitively what you know rationally, by repeated experience. I still don't like cold-calling people, 30 years later, but I can do it if need be, and ordering a pizza is no big deal. But one of my best friends (met long after the pizza incident) is sufficiently socially anxious that on a bad day during a bad week she has asked me to go get things from the store because she needs things and can't bring herself to deal with the people - so I know both that what I dealt with was far from the worst that people have to deal with, and that people with extreme social anxiety can be excellent people of great worth who it would benefit everyone to get to know.

It's amazing how much your brain can change over time, if you set out to make that happen. Sometimes I am a little sad, because I don't think I can fully inhabit the mindset of my younger self any more, and that feels like a loss, because it means there are a whole group of people I can't empathize with as well as I used to be able to. But that aside... your brain can change, and you can make it happen. Not infinitely so, but a large amount. Your situation is not hopeless, just hard.

Also of note, you don't have to become a social butterfly or go date 100 people to meet someone. It is in fact not hopeless even if you can't make yourself interact with others, if, when someone approaches you or indicates an interest, you accept that and metaphorically say yes, rather than no. Your odds of meeting someone are better if you go out and meet someone, but they are not zero if you wait for people to come to you - as long as, when they do, you don't push them away. In Milford's case, what means he definitely won't meet someone is his (to quote myself) "strategy of never talking to women unless they initiate the conversation and then turning them down if they do show an interest". If you can just not do the second part, you've got a chance.

You haven't dumped very much, and I'd be happy to continue the conversation, but if you'd rather not, at least know I'm glad that you related to the things said previously.

wouldnt bet on something self reported like this

@MattPen If it helps my credibility, I bet large amounts in this market and resolved it the other way:

@MattPen Also, this market is preparing to resolve NO and someone who would've originally bet NO had the same reservations:

@MilfordHammerschmidt i applaud your integrity

Assume it has to be 1 on 1?

@hominidan Nah, as long as I'm a major part of the conversation

@MilfordHammerschmidt do they have to be a major part, or does it count if it's just you doing the talking?

Arb:

reposted

More information about myself for you to laugh at in this market: