
Resolution criteria
This market resolves YES if Bad Bunny makes any explicit political statement, gesture, or display during his Super Bowl LX halftime performance on February 8, 2026. A political statement includes verbal remarks, visual symbols, gestures, or lyrical content that directly references political positions, candidates, policies, or social movements. The statement must occur during the halftime show itself (not pre-show or post-show appearances). Resolution will be determined by reviewing official broadcast footage from NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, or NFL+.
Background
Bad Bunny will headline the Super Bowl LX halftime show on February 8, 2026, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. The NFL, Roc Nation, and Bad Bunny have stated the performance is not meant to send a political message. However, Bad Bunny has been more overt about his dissatisfaction with the current administration, endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. In Puerto Rico's 2024 election, Bad Bunny devoted himself to steering voters away from the pro-statehood New Progressive Party and rallying support for the Puerto Rican Independence Party. His 2025 album "DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS" is steeped in political references to Puerto Rico, leveraging music to shine a global spotlight on Puerto Rican values and issues.
Considerations
The selection raises questions about how much space there will be for Bad Bunny's trademark symbolism and social commentary given the NFL's history of keeping performances tightly managed. Earlier in 2025, Bad Bunny declined to hold concerts in mainland United States due to concerns over ICE raids, but announced he would perform the Super Bowl as "just one date in the United States."
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People are also trading
I bet against Bad Bunny saying something like “ICE out” (like at the Grammys) or “fuck Trump” or “no one is illegal on stolen land” or “Puerto Rico libre!”. I expected that commercial pressures would prevent him from saying anything overtly political because that would alienate a lot of the audience. Inoffensive platitudes like “God bless America” and “Love not hate” are exactly what I expected and not political statements in my view. His statements do not directly reference political positions, candidates, policies, or social movements, and this should resolve NO.
I’m resolving this as yes, and after plugging in the parameters of this market into ChatGPT, I think it put it well as to why:
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Based on the resolution criteria you gave — “Bad Bunny makes any explicit political statement, gesture, or display during his Super Bowl LX halftime performance on February 8, 2026” — the market resolves YES. Here’s why:
What happened during the performance
Bad Bunny did make politically meaningful statements or displays during the halftime show itself, even if they weren’t direct policy speeches:
He ended the performance with a football inscribed with “Together, We Are America” and said “God bless America”, while naming countries across the Americas and emphasizing cultural unity — an intentional message about identity, belonging, and inclusion.
The show featured symbols of Puerto Rican and Latin American culture, including flags and imagery tied to identity and representation.
The broadcast visuals included a screen message stating “The only thing more powerful than hate is love”, which, in the context of current socio-political debates (immigration, cultural inclusion, backlash from political figures), carries a broader political stance.
While commentators differ on how overt these elements were, the presence of culturally and politically resonant imagery and messages during the official broadcast meets your definition of an explicit political display or gesture tied to political positions and social movements.
Why this counts as political
Under your resolution rules, political expression doesn’t have to be a speech about a specific policy — it includes visual symbols, gestures, or lyrical content referencing political positions or social movements during the show. By centering underrepresented cultures, emphasizing unity across nations, and using symbolic text and imagery with clear social interpretation, Bad Bunny’s performance contained political content within the broadcast.
Outcome: ✅ YES, the market resolves YES.
From market description:
Directly references political positions, candidates, policies, or social movements.
Everything is political. But I am surprised to see that saying "God bless America" meets the criteria.