This market resolves YES if the trailing 6-month average 4N Nb2O5 (99.99% niobium pentoxide) spot price exceeds 45 USD/kg on December 31, 2026.

What is being measured: Arithmetic average of monthly spot prices for high-purity Nb2O5 (99.99% / 4N grade) in USD per kg, for the 6-month period ending 3 months before December 31, 2026. The 3-month lag ensures quarterly price reports covering the window are published before settlement.

Measurement window:

• Settlement June 30: October (prior year) – March (current year) average

• Settlement December 31: April – September (current year) average

Data timing: Fastmarkets and Asian Metal publish monthly or quarterly assessments. If only quarterly assessments are available, average the quarters within the window.

YES if:

• Fastmarkets or Asian Metal data confirms trailing 6-month average 4N Nb2O5 price exceeds 45 USD/kg for the applicable window

NO if:

• Trailing 6-month average 4N Nb2O5 price is ≤ 45 USD/kg per available data

• If no 4N-specific data is available: estimate from 2N price using historical premium (~15–20%); if estimated equivalent ≤ 45 USD/kg, resolves NO

See measurable definition: measurables/niobium/nb_oxide_4n_spot_price.measurable.yaml

Primary sources:

1. Fastmarkets — Nb2O5 high-purity price assessment (monthly/quarterly)

2. Asian Metal — niobium oxide price index, high-purity grade (asianmetal.com)

Secondary sources: 3. CBMM specialty products pricing (cbmm.com.br) 4. AMG Advanced Metallurgy quarterly reports — Nb specialty products revenue/pricing 5. USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — niobium section (annual average reference) 6. H.C. Starck / Plansee — specialty Nb products pricing (periodic disclosures)