MANIFOLD
Will the Trump administration's floor price for indium exceed $800 / kg for Project Vault when announced?
2
Ṁ200Ṁ43
Feb 13
39%
chance

Resolves YES if the Trump administration officially announces a floor price exceeding $375 USD per kg for indium under Project Vault, as published by the White House, Department of Commerce, EXIM Bank, or equivalent government source; resolves NO if at or below $375/kg or no floor price is announced. Uses the exact figure from the primary announcement for Project Vault, which establishes minimum import thresholds to counter Chinese dominance (50% production, US >50% reliance) and support semiconductors/displays amid supply vulnerabilities; current market ~$600-650/kg (Feb 2026), suggested floor $850/kg (1.5-2x) per policy estimates. Floor price specifically means the minimum price threshold for stockpiling/import, not purchase or spot prices; market stays open until official announcement.

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