This market resolves YES if Sm2O3 Western (CIF Rotterdam) spot price exceeds 25 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Samarium oxide (Sm2O3, 3N) spot price in the Western market (CIF Rotterdam or equivalent ex-China Western assessment), USD/kg, on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: Western Sm2O3 spot price >= 25 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: Western Sm2O3 spot price < 25 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Argus REE samarium oxide — CIF Rotterdam or Western assessment
Fastmarkets (ex-Metal Pages) Sm2O3 Western spot assessment
Asian Metal — samarium oxide Western or ex-China prices
SMM samarium oxide Western premium data
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ28 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 2.17 USD/kg
Rationale: The skeptic's objection about lack of direct Western CIF Rotterdam data is noted, but the interpretation ladder allows for reasonable interpretation when the named source is unavailable. All available market indicators consistently show prices around $2.17/kg, which is more than 10x below the $25/kg threshold. The overwhelming evidence from multiple indirect but relevant sources supports a clear NO resolution.
Voter outcome: NO (share 1.00). Skeptic objection: The resolution relies entirely on
Sources read: