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MANIFOLD
Will Platreef Shaft #3 have achieved operational ore hoisting by
1
Ṁ10kṀ4k
Dec 31
63%
chance

Resolves YES if Ivanhoe Mines has officially announced that Platreef Shaft #3 is hoisting production ore from the Flatreef orebody on a sustained basis, confirmed by a press release, quarterly report, or investor communication before December 31, 2026. Resolves NO otherwise.

Context: Shaft #3 is a 5.1-meter diameter production shaft designed to boost Platreef's ore hoisting capacity to 5 Mtpa. It is the key bottleneck for Phase 2 ramp-up. Management guided April 2026 for operational status, but mining mega-projects routinely suffer late-stage delays. Eskom load-shedding and Limpopo Province weather add risk.

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