This market resolves YES if lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries accounted for more than 65% of total global electric vehicle battery production by gigawatt-hours shipped in calendar year 2026.
What is measured: LFP chemistry's share of global EV battery production (passenger cars and light commercial vehicles only, not stationary storage) for the full calendar year January–December 2026, measured by gigawatt-hours shipped. Annual data from SNE Research and Rho Motion is typically published in February of the following year; this market settles December 31, 2027, giving ample time for definitive 2026 figures to be available.
YES if: Annual industry reports show LFP share at or above 65% of global EV battery GWh for 2026.
NO if: LFP share is below 65% for 2026.
Resolution sources (priority order):
SNE Research global EV battery market share report (cited widely in industry press)
Rho Motion global EV battery market report
BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook — battery chemistry section
Reuters, Bloomberg, or FT reporting citing annual LFP share figures from the above
1,000