Will China January 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes?

Question

This market resolves YES if China January 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 20 tonnes.

What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending January 2027, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.

YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 20 tonnes for January 2027 NO if: Export volume below 20 tonnes

Resolution sources (priority order):

GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90

Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)

SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — China REE export data

Fastmarkets / Metal Bulletin — China samarium export commentary

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 52% chance (1 traders, as of May 4, 2026).

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