This market resolves YES if China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceeds 26 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge ex-works China spot price (USD/kg, Hf < 100 ppm) on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: China Zr sponge price >= 26 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: China Zr sponge price < 26 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal — zirconium sponge China domestic spot price (asianmetal.com)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Zirconium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — zirconium sponge price (smm.cn)
Argus Metals International — zirconium sponge China
Update 2026-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is resolving this market NO. The May 19, 2026 price of $20.99 USD/kg was used as the reference price (nearest available data to May 31), which is ~19% below the $26/kg threshold.
1,000Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 20.99 USD/kg
Rationale: The skeptic raises a valid concern about the 12-day gap between available data (May 19) and settlement date (May 31). However, the objection overstates market volatility risk. The May 19 price of $20.99/kg is 19% below the $26/kg threshold - a substantial gap that would require an unprecedented spike. The supply chain context shows zirconium sponge pricing is relatively stable, driven by industrial ceramics demand rather than speculative trading. While the evidence isn't perfect, it strongly sup
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