This market resolves YES if China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price exceeds 18 USD/kg on June 30, 2026.
What is being measured: Nuclear-grade zirconium sponge ex-works China spot price (USD/kg, Hf < 100 ppm) on or nearest to June 30, 2026.
YES if: China Zr sponge price >= 18 USD/kg on June 30, 2026 NO if: China Zr sponge price < 18 USD/kg on June 30, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Asian Metal — zirconium sponge China domestic spot price (asianmetal.com)
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — Zirconium section (usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/mcs)
SMM (Shanghai Metals Market) — zirconium sponge price (smm.cn)
Argus Metals International — zirconium sponge China
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ13 |
Proposed resolution: YES Actual value: 20.89 USD/kg
Rationale: The best available public data (ScrapMonster) shows the China ex-works zirconium sponge spot price at $20.89/kg as of June 19, 2026, which is well above the 18 USD/kg threshold. While the exact June 30, 2026 value is behind a paywall, there is no evidence of a sudden price drop below $18/kg by the settlement date. The price is consistent with annual averages from USGS and other sources, indicating stability above the threshold. Therefore, the outcome is YES, as the available evidence strongly su
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