This market resolves YES if APR (ammonium perrhenate) Rotterdam price exceeds 8000 USD/kg on May 31, 2026.
What is being measured: Ammonium perrhenate (APR) catalytic-grade spot price, in-warehouse Rotterdam, USD/kg, on or nearest to May 31, 2026.
YES if: APR Rotterdam price >= 8000 USD/kg on May 31, 2026 NO if: APR Rotterdam price < 8000 USD/kg on May 31, 2026
Resolution sources (priority order):
Fastmarkets — rhenium ammonium perrhenate, in-whs dup Rotterdam (MB-RE-0001)
Metal Bulletin rhenium APR price assessment
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries — rhenium APR annual average price (annual reference)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ37 | |
| 2 | Ṁ27 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 |
Proposed resolution: NO Actual value: 3,400.00 USD/kg
Rationale: The skeptic raises a valid concern about using Chinese procurement as a proxy for Rotterdam pricing, but the objection doesn't overcome the weight of evidence. While no exact Rotterdam datapoint exists, the Chinese procurement at ~$3,400/kg represents the best available market data near the resolution date, and all indirect evidence shows prices remained well below $8,000/kg. The interpretation ladder allows reasonable proxies when the named source is unavailable, and there's no plausible scenar
Sources read:
Thermo Fisher Scientific is selling APR for $1134 for 50 grams which works out to $22.68 per gram. If I were to buy one mole (or 268.24 grams) of APR, it would cost me about $6083.68, and I would have one mole's worth of rhenium (or 186.207 grams worth of rhenium), so the actual price on a per-gram-of-rhenium basis is $6083.68/186.207 = $32.67/g or $32670/kg. This is a lot more than $8k/kg but I assume that Thermo Fisher Scientific has enough market capture that they can probably mark up their stuff by three or four fold relative to the Rotterdam price.
(Also, Thermo Fisher was the cheapest company I found from a quick google search; some companies are selling >=95% pure APR for as high of a price as $60 per gram.)