Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the first metal officially requested by the United States government for procurement under "Project Vault," the strategic critical minerals reserve announced by President Donald Trump in February 2026.

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the White House, the U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM), or the U.S. Department of the Interior confirming the first specific metal or mineral requested or authorized for initial acquisition. If a list of multiple metals is released simultaneously as the "first request," the market will resolve to "Multiple/Simultaneous." If no specific metal is ever formally requested or if the project is cancelled before any request is made, the market will resolve N/A.

Background

Project Vault is a $12 billion public-private partnership initiative, supported by a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of the United States and approximately $2 billion in private capital. Designed as a strategic buffer for civilian manufacturing, it is intended to stabilize supply chains and reduce dependence on foreign sources, particularly China.

Unlike traditional government-led stockpiles, Project Vault is demand-driven; Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) participate by committing to purchase materials at set prices, which in turn signals which minerals the reserve should prioritize for procurement. As of early 2026, the program encompasses the 60 minerals on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Critical Minerals List. Because the program relies on specific manufacturer demand, the "first" request may be tied to the immediate needs of major industrial participants.

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