The US International Trade Commission (ITC) is expected to hold its preliminary vote in September 2025 to decide whether there is a “reasonable indication” that alleged dumping and/or subsidization of Russian unwrought palladium is injuring the U.S. industry.

A positive determination means the case continues, allowing the Department of Commerce to proceed with the investigation and potentially impose provisional duties later in 2025.

A negative determination would terminate the case immediately.

Historical data: roughly 80%+ of preliminary ITC votes in antidumping cases are affirmative.

Analyst estimate for this case: 75–85% chance of a positive determination.

Resolution Criteria:

Resolves YES if, at any point in 2025, the ITC issues an affirmative preliminary injury determination in this specific palladium case. Resolves NO if the ITC issues a negative determination or the vote is not held in 2025.

Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, at any time in 2025, the USITC issues an affirmative preliminary injury determination (material injury or threat) in Inv. Nos. 701‑TA‑776 and 731‑TA‑1761 (Unwrought Palladium from Russia). Verification: USITC news release or determination notice for these investigation numbers, or the Federal Register “Determination” notice. If sources conflict, the Federal Register controls. (usitc.gov)

• Resolves NO if the USITC issues a negative preliminary determination, terminates the investigation before a preliminary vote, or no preliminary vote/determination occurs in 2025. (law.cornell.edu)

• Primary source links for verification when published: USITC case page and calendar entry for this investigation; Federal Register docket. (usitc.gov, federalregister.gov)

• A preliminary affirmative determination of either material injury or threat thereof will resolve YES, as these are the two statutory paths for a positive ITC decision.

Background

• Petition filed by Sibanye‑Stillwater and United Steelworkers on July 30, 2025; USITC instituted the preliminary phase on July 31, 2025 (Inv. Nos. 701‑TA‑776/731‑TA‑1761). A virtual preliminary conference is scheduled for August 20, 2025. (internationaltradeinsights.com, usitc.gov)

• Statutory timeline: the Commission generally must reach a preliminary determination within 45 days of petition filing/ITA initiation notice. Law firm schedules project an ITC vote around September 12, 2025. (law.cornell.edu, internationaltradeinsights.com)

Considerations

• Any affirmative preliminary determination (injury or threat) counts as YES; a finding of negligible imports or other negative outcome ends the case and resolves NO under these rules. (law.cornell.edu)

• Commerce’s initiation and subsequent AD/CVD prelims are contingent on an affirmative ITC prelim; however, those Commerce steps do not affect this market’s resolution. (congress.gov)