Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the high temperature in New York City on December 25, 2025 exceeds 39°F, and NO if it reaches 39°F or below. Resolution will be determined using official temperature data from the National Weather Service Central Park weather station at https://www.weather.gov/okx/CentralParkHistorical.

Background

Current forecasts predict Christmas Eve highs of 39°F and Christmas Day highs of 39°F with mostly cloudy conditions. A large area of the US is expected to see warmer-than-average temperatures for the rest of December, though some of the snow on the ground in the Midwest and Northeast will melt away because of the milder temperatures. Historically, Christmas temperatures in NYC vary widely: the record high of 66 degrees occurred in 2015, while the coldest Christmas morning on record had a low temperature of -1 degrees.

Considerations

The 39°F threshold is notably tight given current forecasts predicting exactly that temperature. Small variations in weather patterns or timing could push the actual high slightly above or below this boundary. The jet stream is about to smooth out and take a more level west-to-east path across the country, which tends to act like a wall, blocking any long-lasting bouts of cold air from coming too far south out of Canada.