Resolution Criteria

The market resolves YES if the high temperature in New York City on December 25, 2025, plus 2 times the result of a single standard six-sided die roll (1-6) exceeds 46°F. The market resolves NO otherwise.

Temperature will be measured using the official National Weather Service station at Central Park. The die roll must be conducted publicly and documented before resolution. The formula is: High Temperature + (2 × Die Roll) > 46°F.

Background

The record high for December 25 in NYC is 66°F, set in 2015, while the coldest Christmas morning on record was -1°F. Christmas Day temperatures in NYC are highly variable, ranging from well below freezing to mild conditions. The die roll adds a random element with a range of 2-12 (rolling 1-6 and multiplying by 2), meaning the threshold requires either a relatively warm Christmas or a favorable die roll.

Considerations

This market combines a weather outcome with a random element. The die roll introduces variance that could swing the outcome—for example, a high of 35°F would need a roll of 6 (adding 12) to reach 47°F and resolve YES, while a high of 45°F would resolve YES with any roll of 1 or higher.