I am in 8th grade. There was a kid on my bus (45 min ride, kind of hilly) who absolutely retched up his lunch on this bus. The juice was trickling down on the floor, a lump of half-churned food lay on the seat, flies circling. Nasty.

We've only been in school for 3 days and this already happened. That means technically there's a 33.3% chance of this happening again on Monday.

What are the odds he'll absolutely hurl over the next week?

Last week's market: https://manifold.markets/Mike_Pence/kid-heaves-his-lunch-this-week