Joshua M. Pearce has a paper Do universities investing in technology transfer via patenting lose money? which answers this question yes for a single case study which they call an average US research university (Michigan Technological University, where they worked 2011-2021).

In a popular article based on the paper US universities lose millions of dollars chasing patents, research shows Pearce makes a prediction:

The easy-to-follow methodology I set up can be used by any university to determine its intellectual property’s real return on income. Each university will be slightly different, but for the vast majority, the return on investment will be strongly negative.

Which this question attempts to encode. I included "ROI is positive across all US research universities" because it's possible that superstars could cause this overall result even if vast majority/strongly negative is true.

I'll resolve based on the best available knowledge as of January 1, 2030. In the ideal world Pearce's methodology is applied to all US research universities but I'll resolve true/false if there is other evidence compelling enough to do so; pointers to such evidence is extremely welcome! For answers there isn't such evidence for I'll resolve as N/A.