The bet resolves as yes if:
Official Announcement: A clear, unambiguous announcement from Russian government sources confirming the unilateral reconstitution of the government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities, claiming that the existing authorities are unconstitutional due to the expiration of their term of office, by the end of 2024.
Actions by Russian Authorities: Verifiable evidence of significant actions by Russian authorities leading to the establishment of self-appointed authorities in Ukraine, even if the self-appointed government does not effectively govern Ukraine but is nominally established.
No:
Official Denial: A clear, unambiguous statement from Russian government sources denying any intention or plan to unilaterally reconstitute the government of Ukraine.
Lack of Significant Actions: Absence of verifiable evidence of significant actions by Russian authorities aimed at establishing self-appointed authorities in Ukraine.
Related questions
Very unlikely. The time to do that would have been in 2014, post-maidan, not now, as the Russian stated position has been that the post-maidan government is illegitimate.
We also haven’t seen Russia play the ‘government in exile’ game before. It’s more of a western thing to do, where they hold power over international institutions. The Venezuela Guaido situation is a good example.
@KongoLandwalker If Russia takes steps to reconstitute the government of Ukraine but officially denies it, the resolution depends on whether there's verifiable evidence of Russian actions (for example, but not limited to: if Viktor Yanukovych is a party of this reconstitution - will resolve as "yes"). If there is, the resolution would likely be "Yes," regardless of the denial.
Interesting question, since they hold former aka „legitimate” president Yanukovych in Moscow, and who visited Minsk in May.
@MichaelVoss hilarious absence of logic that would be from them: Ynukovych's term finished much longer ago.
That makes me think the event is likely, because of all the absurdity they usually do.
@KongoLandwalker Indeed, it's a compelling point. Russia's stance on Yanukovych, whom they see as the only remaining legitimate president of Ukraine, despite his term ending years ago, suggests a willingness to embrace such absurdities. His recent visit to Minsk indicate continued relevance in Russian political calculations. This lends weight to the possibility of Russia taking steps to reconstitute the Ukrainian government while denying any such intentions officially.