Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or above 7,000 on any trading day on or before October 31, 2025. Resolution will be verified using the official closing price from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

Background

As of October 28, 2025, the S&P 500 is trading at $6,877.70, approximately 123 points below the 7,000 threshold. The index touched an intraday record of 6,850 on October 24, 2025, leaving a gap of roughly 150 points to the target. In September 2025, a major investment firm increased its 2025 price target on the S&P 500 to 7,000, suggesting analyst confidence in reaching this level by year-end, though the specific timeframe for this market is only 3 trading days.

Considerations

The S&P 500 would need to gain approximately 1.8% from current levels to reach 7,000 before month-end. One analyst anticipated a sharp rally to finish October after sector rotation in recent weeks, though this was written before the current price levels. With only 3 trading days remaining in October, the market faces a tight window for this move to occur.