Price according to CoinMarketCap

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Bitcoin's price falls below $104,000 USD at any point during November 2025 (November 1-30). Resolution will be determined by the price data on CoinMarketCap, using the daily closing price or the lowest intraday price recorded during the month. If the price touches $104,000 or below at any point, the market resolves YES. If Bitcoin remains at or above $104,000 throughout November, the market resolves NO.

Background

Bitcoin was trading at around $109,964.50 on November 1, 2025, placing it approximately $5,900 above the $104K threshold. Bitcoin's all-time high is $126,210.50, which was reached on October 6, 2025, representing a decline of roughly 13% from that peak. Bitcoin price marked a sharp 12% rebound from its mid-October low of $103,750, meaning the price has already approached the $104K level recently.

Considerations

From 2013 to 2025, Bitcoin's average gain in November was nearly 42%, the largest gain among all other months, though this figure is distorted by a single event: 2013's more than 449.35% gain, and without that outlier, the median gain is just 8.81%. Market experts expect that in November 2025, the value will not drop below a minimum of $111,291.77, suggesting most forecasts anticipate prices staying well above the $104K level. However, the crypto market continues to remain volatile and unpredictable.