If Hans Niemann faces Magnus Carlsen in the Speed Chess Championship semifinals, who will win?
If Hans Niemann faces Magnus Carlsen in the Speed Chess Championship semifinals, who will win?
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Plus
48
Ṁ37k
resolved Sep 6
100%99.5%
Match is played normally, Magnus Carlsen wins
0.4%
Match is played normally, Hans Niemann wins
0.0%
Hans Niemann withdraws / resigns in protest
0.0%
Magnus Carlsen withdraws / resigns in protest
0.1%
Hans Niemann disqualified
0.0%
Magnus Carlsen disqualified

Hans Niemann won his Speed Chess Championship quarterfinals match today and has advance to the semifinals. If Magnus Carlsen also wins his quarterfinals match, then he will advance to play Niemann.

This is especially interesting because of the Carlsen-Niemann cheating controversy in 2022:

https://www.chess.com/news/view/2024-speed-chess-championship-qf-so-niemann

According to another Manifold market, the allegations of cheating against Niemann were inconclusive:

https://manifold.markets/jack/did-hans-niemann-cheat-against-magn

I think there is at least some probability that if this match occurs, Carlsen may refuse to play Niemann, either by withdrawing early from the tournament or by resigning in protest as he did in 2022. Even though this could technically be counted as a loss, I have included it as a separate option (for both players).

I have also included the (unlikely in my opinion) scenarios in which a player is disqualified.

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4mo

Resolving YES, congrats to Magnus!

sold Ṁ3 YES4mo

Thoughts on the drama? What do y'all think Hans was pissed about

4mo

@diracdeltafunk He was claiming his clock jumped by a few seconds after he made his move. I'm not sure how they assuaged him, maybe they played back his screen recording or something.

sold Ṁ11 YES4mo

@apetresc Lol, thanks!

bought Ṁ50 YES4mo

Maybe I’m wrong, but this is just how strong my Magnus prior is. Beating supergms is not a sign that you will beat Magnus in a long match

bought Ṁ25 YES4mo

@ZekeBass MVL beat Magnus in the SCC in 2020 so it's not unheard of

4mo

@Nightsquared True, but MVL won the blitz world champs too, he’s an absolute top blitz player. Since 2020 his rating has fallen a lot, I wouldn’t count Hans’ win over him the same

4mo

Honestly with Hans recent performance he shouldn't be counted out. I think Magnus will win but people saying hans has no chance seems weird.

Magnus is in a bad mental state recently, and has a lot of pressure to win this, meanwhile Hans is on the streak of his life, easily winning against supergms.

4mo

85% is low

opened a Ṁ2,000 YES at 16% order5mo

Hans seems cheap great.

4mo

Hikaru suggested 95:5, maybe that’s too much but 90:10 seems plausible

bought Ṁ100 NO5mo

Resolves N/A if Carlsen loses his quarterfinals match?

5mo

Yes, correct.

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