Hans Niemann won his Speed Chess Championship quarterfinals match today and has advance to the semifinals. If Magnus Carlsen also wins his quarterfinals match, then he will advance to play Niemann.
This is especially interesting because of the Carlsen-Niemann cheating controversy in 2022:
https://www.chess.com/news/view/2024-speed-chess-championship-qf-so-niemann
According to another Manifold market, the allegations of cheating against Niemann were inconclusive:
https://manifold.markets/jack/did-hans-niemann-cheat-against-magn
I think there is at least some probability that if this match occurs, Carlsen may refuse to play Niemann, either by withdrawing early from the tournament or by resigning in protest as he did in 2022. Even though this could technically be counted as a loss, I have included it as a separate option (for both players).
I have also included the (unlikely in my opinion) scenarios in which a player is disqualified.
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@diracdeltafunk He was claiming his clock jumped by a few seconds after he made his move. I'm not sure how they assuaged him, maybe they played back his screen recording or something.
@ZekeBass MVL beat Magnus in the SCC in 2020 so it's not unheard of
@Nightsquared True, but MVL won the blitz world champs too, he’s an absolute top blitz player. Since 2020 his rating has fallen a lot, I wouldn’t count Hans’ win over him the same