Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at exactly 8:00 AM ET on October 5, 2026, the implied probability (represented by the "YES" contract price) on the Polymarket contract Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? is strictly greater than 65% (equivalent to a contract price of 65.1¢ or higher, or a displayed probability strictly greater than 65.0%). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

• Data Source: The primary source of truth is the transaction history or price chart on the official Polymarket page. The price at 8:00 AM ET will be determined by the last traded price of the "YES" contract at or immediately prior to 8:00 AM ET on October 5, 2026.

• Fallback: If Polymarket is inaccessible or the contract is paused/removed at the resolution time, historical data from third-party tracking site Kalshi will be used to establish the price at the specified time. If no reliable pricing data is available, the market will resolve to N/A.

Background

On October 4, 2026, Brazil held the first round of its general election. One of the largest political prediction markets on Polymarket tracks the overall winner of the presidential race. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) are the frontrunners. In the days leading up to the election, Bolsonaro's odds saw an upward trajectory, rising to around 58% to 64% on the platform, whereas traditional polling showed a closer statistical tie in simulated runoffs. This market tracks whether the initial results of the first round will propel Bolsonaro's odds past the 65% threshold on the morning of October 5.

This description was mostly generated by AI, but reviewed and verified by me.