*Updated criteria to resolve primarily based on court transcripts rather than media sources.
Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas is famously untalkative during oral arguments, and once went a decade without asking a single question.
If Justice Thomas asks any question during oral arguments for Trump v. Anderson then the market resolves YES. (A question about the weather or the Super Bowl resolve the market YES.) Only making comments, observations, statements, or jokes will resolve NO. If Justice Thomas doesn't speak at all, the market resolves NO.
This market specifically refers to TRUMP, DONALD J. V. ANDERSON, NORMA, ET AL.
The market closes at midnight ET on Thursday, February 8, 2024. If oral arguments are moved, then the market close date will change in an attempt to close at midnight ET on the day of.
Court transcripts and audio will be used to resolve the question. If there is any uncertainty, media sources, including but not limited to The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and the AP will be used. In the highly unlikely scenario that it is unclear whether Justice Thomas asked a question, then the market creator will resolve using best judgement.
The market creator will not bet in this market.
For background:
Clarence Thomas Asks 1st Question From Supreme Court Bench In 10 Years
Justice Clarence Thomas, Long Silent, Has Turned Talkative
Thomas Keeps Asking Questions as Justices Return to Courtroom (1)
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@js (1) I think people are betting based on his reputation, which probably isn't accurate post-pandemic. (2) No one seems to be expecting Justice Thomas to recuse himself, but this is definitely not an ordinary case.
@MattLashofSullivan Honestly, because I haven't needed to use SCOTUS transcripts/audio in a long time. Will update criteria to reflect transcripts. Thanks.