While Fyre Festival II is officially selling tickets and disgraced promoter Billy McFarland insists the festival is happening, the local Mexican tourism board claims "this is an event that does not exist."
The market will resolve YES if Fyre Festival II is either cancelled or the opening date is delayed later than Friday, May 30, 2025 local time. The number of attendees and performers, as well as the venue location, are irrelevant to this question. Changing the length of the festival does not affect this market outcome as long as it begins on May 30th.
The market creator will not trade in this market. The question will not resolve as a percentage.
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removed Announcement Policy
Only official statements that remain published on the issuer’s website will be considered valid evidence for a delay or cancellation.
News coverage reporting an announcement that was later removed does not meet the evidentiary standard for a YES outcome.
1,000People are also trading
A message sent to a ticket holder said, "The event has been postponed and a new date will be announced. We have issued you a refund. Once the new date is announced, at that time, you can repurchase if it works for your schedule."
https://abcnews.go.com/US/fyre-festival-2-postponed-new-date-set/story?id=120881219
@LyetKynes fwiw this article was already posted (april 16) before creator clarified (april 17) that the announcements hadn't been enough to resolve this YES. so it is possible @MickBransfield missed it but it's also possible they do not agree it's sufficient for resolution.
@Ziddletwix @LyetKynes Yes, I saw the news coverage but do not count it because FYRE quickly put out a statement and took the message off the website.
Fyre Festival 2 officially postponed, no new date set
“It is our understanding that the organizers of Fyre Festival 2 have officially postponed the event. At this time, no new date or location has been announced,” SoldOut.com, which is listed as a Fyre Festival 2 partner on the event’s website, told Fox News Digital in a statement. “All customers who purchased tickets directly through SOLDOUT.COM have been issued full refunds. Our commitment to customer satisfaction is reflected in our 100% Money-Back Guarantee, which applies to all events on our platform.”
@Ziddletwix I think it's still on based on the official statement posted here: https://www.tmz.com/2025/04/16/fyre-festival-2-postponed-venue-drama-mexico/
They're moving the location but haven't discussed changing dates. If you find something from FYRE or McFarland about changing the dates, please post.
@MickBransfield (fwiw i sold just now to avoid what could be a messy resolution).
i don't agree with that reading—i feel like their statement implies that the previous plan (may 30 + playa del carmen) is cancelled. billy ofc does not phrase it as "fyre festival 2 is cancelled" since he still wants to host FF2. he doesn't explicitly phrase it as a delay, because it's not just a delay—it's much more, they have to find a new location as well.
in part, this is implied by common sense—they had been planning this for a year+, they are refunding tix (& not reopening til they have new dates), by cancelling these plans, it seems to straightforwardly imply a delay (it's just not phrased that way because this is more than a mere delay). they obviously will not announce the new dates until they have a new venue, which will likely take months. they even include lines like "FYRE Festival 2 is coming—and it’ll be worth the wait.", which only make sense assuming the date is being popstponed (otherwise why is it worth the "wait"?).
tl;dr the most straightforward reading of this announcement (both in their own words, and in how it's being reported on) is that by cancelling the plans for may 30 + playa del carmen, this implies the festival is necessarily postponed. if the bar for resolution is an explicit statement by billy mcfarland that the new festival cannot start on may 30th, i think that is extremely unlikely to come before may 1st (why would he make any statement about the new start date until he has a new venue? there's no reason to specifically clarify that, it follows directly from the announcement, and i would not expect another substantive update for many months).
@Ziddletwix The whole thing is a mess - as everyone expected. This scenario honestly occurred to me making the market but it seemed too far fetched even for FYRE. You make good points, but I just don't think the lack of venue means "cancelled or delay" even if it signals that FYRE is very likely not to happen.
@LyetKynes That seems to be where things stand.
Organizers of a Fyre Festival sequel said Wednesday it will no longer take place in the Mexican resort town of Playa Del Carmen after its website momentarily announced the event had been postponed, sparking confusion among ticketholders.
The festival's promoter, Billy McFarland, told NBC News that the date is dependent on location, so it's not immediately clear whether the plans to hold a multiday festival next month would change.