RFK jr will take more votes from Biden than from Trump
16
1kṀ1468Nov 21
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This bet requires that RFK jr gets 5% of the popular vote in the November, 2024 general election.
Provided that RFK jr gets 5% of the vote, this bet:
Resolves to YES if exit polling and other information indicates that most of his votes came from Biden.
Resolves to NO if exit polling and other information indicates that most of his votes came from Trump.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@FakeMoney Agreed that it will be difficult to find great data, but I hope to find good data: exit polls and other info.