Will Kamala brand herself as Tough On Crime going into the election?

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Will Kamala lean into her Copmala persona / prosecutorial background?

https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1815155883061739554

Conditional on winning the nomination.

This market is so I can bet against someone on the question. I'll resolve according to the judgement of whatever trustworthy third party we use to adjudicate our disagreement.

The kind of thing the judge(s) should be looking for:

Explicitly states that her administration will break from Joe Biden's policies

Matt Yglesias or Nate Silver call out the strategy in their newsletters

Any promise of Kamala's favorably impacts police supply/private prison stocks (and isn't immediately walked back)
She's criticized by other Democrats over the stance
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This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Harris

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Kamala Harris

#Democratic Party

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@Conflux care to rule on this one now that the campaign's have just about wrapped up?

@MichaelWheatley oh dear. this is like the thousandth thing on my priority queue. I can rule in a week (or if someone presents evidence that takes a very short amount of time to agree with)

@Conflux sure, no pressure

https://www.slowboring.com/p/riding-the-vibes-to-victory

starting slowly

If border is the only issue she claims to be tough on (no talk of city policing, etc), does this resolve yes?

If she just went on about how we need to close the border and deport people I don't think it should resolve yes, but if it's more than that, things like 'jailing drug cartels and human traffickers', that pushes towards yes

@transmissions11 if you have specific questions about resolution, you should probably ask @Conflux , because IIUC it looks like he's agreed to be the arbitrator

@transmissions11 I agree with Jackson Polack - in American politics, “immigration” tends to be thought of as a distinct issue from “crime,” so she would need to be “tough on crime” not just “tough on the border”

bought Ṁ5,000 YES

https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1821882462017855925

bought Ṁ50 YES

Kamala Harris has spent decades fighting violent crime. As a border state prosecutor, she took on drug cartels smuggling weapons and drugs across the border. As vice president, she backed the toughest border control bill in decades. And as president, she will hire thousands more border agents and crack down on fentanyl and human trafficking. Fixing the border is tough. So is Kamala Harris.

Resolves in 4 hours, any updates?

That was a placeholder close date, sorry for the confusion. I've set a new close date to after the election

How can you say "going into the election" then move the goalposts to after the election ends? "Going into" clearly signifies the beginning of a campaign. The first close date made more sense than the new one.

Agree with this point - my bet was on that date not all time

@Conflux any interest in being conscripted as judge on this subjective market?

Sure, I'd be happy to arbitrate this market. I'll provide a few more details on my tentative interpretation so traders can comment.

My interpretation of the criteria is that the items in the bulleted list (explicit statement / commentator callout / police stock impact / Democrat callout) shouldn't just happen once; they should happen a few times over the course of the campaign (in different weeks, let's say).

For instance, if there was one news cycle in which Silver and Yglesias wrote articles, and Democrats criticized Harris, but then Harris moved away from the strategy for the rest of the campaign, my gut is to resolve that as a NO, but if she shifted back and the news cycle repeated a month later, that would become a YES, even if she shifted away from it again before Election Day.

Does that align with your/traders' interpretation of the question? Paging @SemioticRivalry @Joshua as representatives of Team YES